Corollaries of weather dependent electricity generation

Institutskolloquium

  • Datum: 17.01.2025
  • Uhrzeit: 10:30 - 12:00
  • Vortragender: Prof. Dr. Friedrich Wagner
  • Friedrich Wagner was born on 16 November 1943 in Pfaffenhofen (Swabia). After studying physics and taking his PhD at the Technical University of Munich in 1972, Wagner then went as a postdoc to Ohio State University, where he did research in the field of low-temperature physics from 1973 to 1974. In 1975 he joined Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics, being made head of the ASDEX tokamak experiment in 1986 and appointed Scientific Fellow in 1988. Wagner qualified for lectureship in the same year at the University of Heidelberg, where he held a teaching post till 1991. That year he became Honorary Professor at the Technical University of Munich. From 1989 till 1993 he has been project head of the Wendelstein 7-AS stellarator experiment. From 1993 to 2005 he was member of the Directorate of IPP, from March 1999 till April 2007 Speaker of the Greifswald Branch Institute and from 2003 till 2005 head of the "Wendelstein 7-X Enterprise". In 1987 he was awarded the "Excellency in Plasma Physics" prize by the Plasma Physics Division of the American Physical Society, in 2007 the Hannes Alfvén Prize of the European Physical Society. In 2008 he has been awarded the Stern-Gerlach Medal 2009 by the German Physical Society. Since 1999 he is Ordinary Professor at the Ernst-Moritz Arndt University in Greifswald. Besides his institute commitments, Wagner was from 1996 till 2004 Chairman of the Plasma Physics Division of the European Physical Society, from 2007 till 2009 he was President of the European Physical Society. Wagner is Honorary Member of the Ioffe Institute, St. Petersburg, Fellow of the Institute of Physics of the American Physical Society, and Member of the Editorial Board at the Institute of Physics. He retired end of 2008.
  • Ort: IPP Garching
  • Raum: Arnulf-Schlüter Lecture Hall in Building D2 and Zoom
  • Gastgeber: IPP
  • Kontakt: stefan.possanner@ipp.mpg.de
 	 	 	 	 Corollaries of weather dependent electricity generation

The response of Germany to the climate challenge – both of politics and society – is the energy transition toward renewable energies. The concept is to replace nuclear and fossil power by renewable energy forms with wind- and PV power as dominant pillars. Their advantage is to produce electricity CO2-free; the disadvantages are low power density and intermittent generation requiring large power installations and a backup system for periods of unfavourable weather conditions, most notably the so called “Dunkelflaute”. The present backup system based mostly on coal, will be phased-out till 2038, preferentially till 2030. – Germany can be considered as a laboratory for testing these technologies in large scales under the economic conditions of a running industry with high energy demand. My emphasis will be to demonstrate the specific weather aspect both on the supply conditions and the electricity price development. Historic data will be used to extrapolate to the key years 2030 and 2045, for which political targets exist. Specifically in 2045, Germany intends to be fully decarbonised. - The following conclusions will be substantiated: - it can be questioned whether the targets for wind and PV power and the necessary grid expansion will be met; stable supply and the environmental targets can hardly be met simultaneously; it will be difficult to close the gap in the electricity supply targets for 2030 either by import from the European grid or by the import of hydrogen; early signs of a coming shortage is that Germany became an electricity importer after a decade of export along with recent appeals of grid operators to save electricity. – Electricity import occurs at high, export at low prices. The electricity price is found to increase over years but specifically to develop strong fluctuations with large positive and negative excursions. Four periods during the day can be identified with systematically different prices. The day period with PV shows the lowest and frequently negative prices. According to this pattern, a further built-up of PV is disturbing and without economic value. This price pattern over the day sets limits to the concept of demand-side-management.

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